YouGov projects Lib Dems to win in Taunton and Wellington

Polling company YouGov has published its first MRP poll of the current general election campaign, showing that if an election was held right now, it would result in a Labour landslide with a majority of 194.

Labour under Sir Keir Starmer would win 422 seats nationally (more than Tony Blair managed in his 1997 landslide), while Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would be reduced to just 140 – the fewest number of Tory MPs since the Liberal landslide of 1906.

Of the seven constituencies within the Somerset Council area (one of which crosses over the Devon border), the Conservatives are expected to retain four of them – but would only do so by very narrow margins in three of these.

One of these four seats, Frome and East Somerset, has been described by YouGov as a “three-way marginal”, with the Tories, Labour and Liberal Democrats all deemed to have a good chance of winning the seat.

How Somerset could look if a general election was held today. (Image: YouGov)

Of the three other seats, Labour is expected to win one and the Lib Dems pick up the other two, partially reversing their wipe-out in the south west in 2015.

Across the south west at the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won 48 out of 55 seats, with Labour winning six and one going to the Lib Dems.

YouGov’s latest poll, which is based on the new general election boundaries, predicts Labour would win 24 out of 59 seats, with 20 going to the Tories, 14 to the Lib Dems and one to the Green Party.

Three of the seven seats within the Somerset Council area are listed among the 30 more marginal in the country, with two or more of the main parties having a very good chance of winning there.

These seats are Bridgwater, Frome and East Somerset, and Glastonbury and Somerton.

A spokesman said: “According to our model, 131 seats are currently a toss-up – that is to say that the winning party’s lead is fewer than five points.

“This includes one three way marginal: Frome and East Somerset, which sees the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems all on 25 to 30 per cent of the vote.”

Here’s a breakdown of how YouGov predicts each seat in Somerset to go:

Bridgwater

Labour’s Leigh Redman (who currently represents the Bridgwater North and central division on Somerset Council) is projected to narrowly win the new Bridgwater seat, which also includes the coastal towns of Burnham-on-Sea and Highbridge.

Labour has traditionally polled well in Bridgwater itself, while the Conservatives have traditionally fared better in the more rural parts of the former Sedgemoor district.

Mr Redman’s Tory challenger, former MEP Ashley Fox, is only half a percentage point behind, meaning it may come down a few hundred votes either way on the night.

Lib Dem candidate Claire Sully (who represents the Mendip South division) is predicted to come a distant third.

The projected change in seats in the south west between 2019 and 2024. (Image: YouGov)

Frome and East Somerset 

Conservative candidate Lucy Trimnell (who represents Wincanton and Bruton on Somerset Council) is expected to win back this part of the former Somerton and Frome constituency, which the Tories lost to the Lib Dems in a by-election back in July 2023.

However, both the Lib Dems and Labour stand a chance of taking the seat, polling 27.1 per cent and 25.1 per cent to the Tories’ 29.5 per cent.

Lib Dem candidate Anna Sabine will be hoping to woo disgruntled Conservative voters to increase her share, while Labour candidate Robin Moss will seek to expand his party’s core vote in Midsomer Norton and Radstock into the rest of the seat.

Both will be hoping Green Party votes in Frome itself are swayed one way or the other – and considering the Greens outperformed Labour and Reform in last year’s by-election, anything can happen.

Glastonbury and Somerton

This contest will essentially be a rematch of the Somerton and Frome by-election – but this time with the Tories expected to narrowly come out on top.

Tory candidate Faye Purbrick (who represents the Yeovil South division on Somerset Council) faces a close rematch against Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke (who represents the Blackmoor Vale division), with just 0.3 per cent separating the two candidates.

With six candidates running in the seat, Labour is expected to the best of the left-leaning parties, with Hal Hooberman finishing third ahead of Green candidate Jon Cousins and Angela Henderson of the Workers’ Party of Britain.

While Reform’s candidate Tom Carter is expected to come fourth, his ten per cent of predicted votes could easily gift the seat to the Lib Dems.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain Taunton and Wellington. (Image: YouGov)

Taunton and Wellington

Rebecca Pow, who has represented the Taunton Deane seat for the Conservatives since 2015, could see her time as an MP come to an end if this result proves accurate.

Lib Dem challenger Gideon Amos, who ran against Ms Pow in 2019, looks set to trounce his opponent, polling 48.9 per cent of the vote to her 26.2 per cent.

In addition to the boundary changes, which remove many of the rural villages north of both towns, Ms Pow may be hurt badly by the Tories’ record on sewage discharges into watercourses, given her position before the election as a Defra minister.

Labour’s Brenda Weston (a former Somerset West and Taunton councillor) and Reform’s wonderfully named Charles Hansard are expected to battle it out for third and fourth place.

Tiverton and Minehead

If Ian Liddell-Grainger wins the Tiverton and Minehead seat on July 4, it will be the third seat he has held in his parliamentary career.

Mr Liddell-Grainger won the old Bridgwater constituency for the Conservatives in 2001, before moving to the Bridgwater and West Somerset seat in 2010.

Ian Liddell-Grainger, who represented Bridgwater in Parliament from 2001 and 2024. (Image: UK Parliament)

He currently enjoys a comfortable lead over Lib Dem challenger Rachel Gilmour, who contested the Taunton Deane seat in 2015, polling 36.5 per cent to her 27.7 per cent.

But this is not an insurmountable gap for the Lib Dems to close, with Ms Gilmour hoping the swing achieved in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election in June 2022 could be partially repeated in this predominantly rural constituency.

Wells and Mendip Hills

James Heappey’s resignation may have deprived us of a fourth showdown between himself and local rival Tessa Munt, but the Conservatives are still expected to hold this part of Somerset.

New Conservative candidate Meg Powell-Chandler – who was only announced as a candidate on Sunday (June 2) – is currently expected to win 37.3 per cent of the vote compared to Ms Munt winning 33.2 per cent for the Lib Dems.

Again, this is a small gap that can easily be closed – and Ms Munt has a big local following and immense local knowledge, having served as MP for Wells between 2010 and 2015.

Labour candidate Joe Joseph is expected to finish third, followed by Reform candidate Helen Hims (who stood in the Wells seat in 2015 for UKIP) and Green candidate Peter Welch – though the poll does not provide any prediction for how will independent Abi McGuire may fare.

Yeovil

Marcus Fysh, another Conservative MP elected in 2015, will be looking nervously at these projected results in his seat, which has the fewest boundary changes of any of the new Somerset constituencies.

Lib Dem challenge Adam Dance (who represents South Petherton and Islemoor on Somerset Council) looks set to win big, being predicted to beat Mr Fysh by more than 13 percentage points.

While the Green’s candidate Serena Wootton is not predicted to win many votes, she could take crucial votes away from the Lib Dems – especially in the Chard and Ilminster areas following dissatisfaction with the Lib Dems at a local level.

The projected result in the Yeovil constituency. (Image: YouGov)

Labour candidate Rebecca Montacute and Reform’s Mark Burdge are expected to battle it out for third and fourth place.

YouGov’s MRP poll (which stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification) successfully predicted both the hung parliament at the 2017 general election and Boris Johnson’s 2019 landslide victory.

Two further MRP polls will be published by YouGov in the run-up to election day. To register to vote, visit www.gov.uk/register-to-vote.