2003 proved to be a better year for pig producers than many had predicted, with the All Pigs Monitor Price averaging 103p per kilo over the 12-month period. Not since 1997 has the average price dead weight been above 100p.

We started 2003 with the price at 91p and the value of the Euro at 65p. Contrary to many people's expectations January and February saw a gradual improvement in returns through to the spring and after a slight dip in April the improvement continued through to mid-June, peaking at 112.8p.

Prices fell by up to 17 pence per kilo through the summer months before rising again in the autumn through to November. By mid-December the All Pigs Monitor Price was 102p per kg. showing a steady reduction over the last four weeks of the year. Two major factors to take in to consideration when scanning the British pig marketing scene are the value of the Euro against the £ sterling and the prices, which our competitors in Europe are receiving for their product.

In early January 2003 the value of the Euro against the £ was 65p.This gradually improved during the winter/spring period, peaking at 72p equivalent at the end of May. The improved returns for UK pig producers correspond to this improvement in the value of the Euro.

Since that peak in May 2003 the value of the Euro has remained fairly constant, averaging 69.8p. Prices for our European competitors were also affected by the value of the Euro in the early part of the year, but more recently by supply and demandand restricted marketing opportunities. Returns peaked at the end of September but since then have been very much on the slide.

Of the major pig producing countries, prices have reduced in Holland by 33%, in Germany and France by 25% and in Denmark by 16% since mid September to the end of the year.

2003 is now but a memory, but we do have the satisfaction of knowing that the UK finished at the top of the European Pig Price league table. As Sir Clive Woodward reminds the national rugby squad - "We must now plan for the future".

What does 2004 hold in store for us? If only we knew!

What we do know is that feed prices are very much on the increase. With food amounting to 55- 60% of the cost of producing a pig, this is likely to add at least 10% to the cost of producing a kilogram of pigmeat.

We have seen a gradual increase in the slaughter weight of pigs in recent months, but there is a limit as to how much we can further improve on this factor.

The latest pig census figures show a reduction in the UK breeding herd of 7.6% over the year ending June, with further reductions forecast when the next census figures are made available.

There will be a further expansion of the European Union during 2004 from 15 countries to 22. This will include Poland with two million breeding sows, bringing the EU breeding sow population to 15.7 million of which the UK contributes only 4.1%.

The health of our national herd is of paramount importance. From hands-on experience with PDNS and PMWS it has been proved that management and stockmanship are the key factors.

Our industry like many others, is becoming "bogged down" by legislation, much of which is coming from Brussels. It would be more acceptable if we were all on that level playing field. Could it become even more unlevelled with more countries being accepted in to the EU?

At the time of writing there is concern in the US regarding BSE. From our own experiences we should not wish that problem on any country, but remember 1996 when the effects of BSE contributed to the All Pigs Price that year averaging 137.7pence per kg. At this moment in time we will require at least a 10p/kg rise in price to help cover the increased cost of production. We require maximum support in promoting our product to the meat-eating public in the UK.

There are likely limitations in the supply of UK Pork and Bacon in 2004.The British consumer should be educated and encouraged to request the home produced product from the retailer thus helping to sustain the source of supply.